Predicting the 2011 NCAA Men’s Basketball Champion
Swen Nater

Recently, SLAM magazine ranked “The 500 Greatest NBA Players of All Time.” The top three were Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and Bill Russell. I don’t agree with their selection of second place. As much as I like Wilt (He worked with me.), I think Kareem Abdul-Jabbar should be ahead of him. After all, he won 6 NBA championships and is the leading scorer in NBA history. Jordan also won 6, but Russell won 11. In my opinion, Russell is the best player ever because he was the most valuable player on 11 championship teams.

But that’s not what I want to write about. It’s March Madness so what do you say we try to predict which team will win it all? Around the office, I hear Michigan State, Duke, Villanova, North Carolina, Ohio State, Kansas State, and Florida. Nobody seems to know.  How does one go about making an educated guess?

In a coach’s clinic, one attendee asked Coach Wooden if he believed, the team that had the least turnovers (mistakes that give the ball to the other team) usually wins the game. He said,

Some would say that. Others think it’s the team with the most rebounds that usually wins the game. Some believe the team with the highest field-goal percentage usually wins. Still others predict the team that makes the most freethrows usually wins the game. Now I may be wrong about this but I believe the team that scores the most points usually wins the game.

Basketball is a game of scoring. The team that puts the most points on the scoreboard wins. If you count an offensive rebound as part of the same possession, in any given game, both teams will have about the same number of chances to score. We can conclude then, in a March Madness game, the team that scores the higher number of points per possession (PPP), will win. This year’s NCAA champion, in each game, will score more points, on the average, each possession. 

You say, “Swen, that’s a no-brainer. You’re wasting my time. Give me something to help me fill out the brackets in the USA Today.” Hang on. I’m going somewhere with this. I think you’re going to like it. They key to winning is to maximize your PPP and to minimize your opponent’s PPP. How do you do that?

Maximizing Your PPP
In Practical Modern Basketball, Coach Wooden wrote,

The basic idea of any offense is to get a good shot at the basket every time you obtain possession of the ball…

There are four important words here: “good shot” and “every time.” Without taking care of the ball, you won’t get a good shot, every possession. With that in mind, here are the three keys to maximizing your PPP. 
1. Fast Break
The highest-percentage shots are found on the fast break. Teams that transition quickly, in an aggressive but organized fashion, get “easy shots.” The team that fast breaks and gets the most easy shots, will be very difficult to beat.

2. Passing Attack in the Half-Court Offense
Again in Practical Modern Basketball, Coach wrote,

…generally, the team with the best passing attack will obtain more good percentage shots and thus score more unless they lack initiative or play a ball-control type of offense.

When predicting which team will win a March Madness game, watch for the team that moves the ball quickly and with a purpose, working together to get the ball as close to the basket as possible. In other words, they are aggressively, but deliberately and scrupulously, attacking the basket area, using ball movement to move the defense and create openings for vertical cutters, horizontal cutters, and dribble penetrators. Those teams win. Teams that are not consistently and incessantly moving the ball and penetrating will have to settle for an outside shot and will not go far. The team that controls the paint controls the game.

3. Offensive Rebounding
The second way to increase your PPP is to put missed shots in the basket. Nothing more needs to be said about that.

Minimizing Your Opponent’s PPP
I don’t need to list any points here; it’s very simple. To minimize your opponent’s PPP, you must minimize the three things listed above: Fast breaking, Getting the ball close to the basket, and Offensive rebounding.

Conclusion
So what do the top NBA players of all time have to do with predicting which team will win the NCAA crown this year? It’s about quickness. What is quickness? Russell, Jordan, and Abdul-Jabbar were quick but Coach Wooden believes there is a precursor to physical quickness. In the same book, Coach says,

I have repeatedly pointed out that basketball is a mental game and quickness is probably the greatest physical asset a player can have.

He goes on to define “mental quickness” as alertness, good judgment, and moving with a purpose. Some of the most physically quick players I’ve seen were on the playgrounds of LA, Chicago, and New York. But they were never able to use it well in the team game because they weren’t alert, didn’t have good judgment, and didn’t move with a purpose at the right time.

In the area of quickness, what is true for individual success is true for a team. The three offensive ingredients for maximizing your PPP—Fast Break, Passing Attack and Offensive Rebounding—are realized with mental and physical quickness. Defensively, mentally and physically quick perimeter players get back on defense early and shut off penetration to the basket. Inside players are quick to the gaps and to the rebound. 

Who will come out of March Madness victorious? As you watch the first round, don’t look for the team with the most height or strength. Look for the squads that are physically quick because, mentally, they are ahead of the play at both ends of the floor. They will transition from defense to offense so fast, the other team is back peddling. They will move the ball and get it inside. They will keep the ball out of the middle. They may be behind for a while, but not for long. The 1963-64 UCLA Bruins was the smallest team ever to win the title, even to this day. In the final game, in spite of Duke’s early lead and having two 6’10” players, UCLA’s quickness was too much for them. Boy, was that team quick! I think each player could have played tennis against himself.

By the way, I was 301st on that list. What is Larry Bird doing ahead of me? He was slow. Sheeessshhh! 

Basketball is a game of habits and reactions and the players who can not react instantaneously to situations will be the second-raters because they will lose so many opportunities.
John Wooden